Finding Oil, Produciing Oil--Missionary Position

This posting could actually be a "Revolution Watch" but I reckon I will take a position. It isn't really revolutionary because this has been known for a long time, it just is that no one really likes talking about it and that is my bitch.

This graph may be a bit hard to see, so you might have to blow it up. What you see here are graphs showing the rate of discovery of oil, noticing that the lighter batch is on land and the darker is in water. The height determines the amount of the discoveries found at that given time. As can be seen the discovery rate, no matter where we are looking land or sea, is declining at a rather ferocious rate and the production curve is going up. The reason for the production curve going up is that all of the finds of the past are still being drawn from.

The catch is that many of the older wells, the monsters, like Ghawar in S. Arabia and the Cantarell in Mexico, Texas, and the North Sea off England are all declining in production and there are no big wells to replace them. It turns out that no matter what Ms. Palin says no one is having any luck finding more of the stuff (even at close to $100 per barrel).

Oh ya, they find nature's one time gift (that would be oil) but the discoveries are smaller and frequently in some very remote and dangerous places. Think five miles down in hurricane alley or off in the frozen arctic. And while they make lots of blabber about the finds, one has to note they are generally not that big. Like, "8 billion barrels found off Brazil!" Like whoopee dudes. The USA alone uses one billion in less than a month. To see grown men soiling themselves because somebody found a few billion barrels oil half way to the middle of the earth is clear indication they have no sense of scale. Where do they think they will get the magic straws to suck that stuff up from under a layer of molten salt. And, like, at what price, I might add. That little old production line on the graph has been flat since may of '05. It is expected to turn down soon.

Considering that virtually every ounce of economic development in this country is based on having more energy, it is probably a good idea that we begin having a public discussion. My bitch is and my Missionary position is, "WE NEED TO START, NOW!" and it can't be just losers like me. It has to be the big boys.

Don't even dream that the "alternatives" can replace this black gold, because they can not.