Revolution Watch------The Movement of OIl

Now and then I get revved up. I try to play my fiddle, drink beer, go fishing and play with my antiquated engines to help me get off my high horse. This week there was an incident that got my attention because it just might involve me. You see, I live very close to a rail line and that rail line is now filled with Bomb Tankers or as they are commonly referred to as Bomb Trains. The map below shows rail routes of oil trains.

Some time ago I did make notice of this rail line on this blog and I noted how the three trestles on the line and right here in town they look like something ofutof Ma and Pa's Kettle's days. They are old as hell and very much cracked. Yes, they work and I have stood next to them as the heavy oil trains go over the trestle and saw nothing of note except the thunderous vibration of the tonnage.

As is well known, this week another one of these Bomb Trains blew all to hell out in W. Virginia--not the first one. It seems if they derail and there is a spark, they make one hell of a huge bomb. I am not happy. So I sent the following letter to the local news paper to see if they might publish it.

What about the Bomb Trains in Portage County?

It seems appropriate for numerous reason, citizens begin to become aggressively concerned about the frack oil “Bomb Trains” that are moving daily through Portage County. On Monday a train just like the ones going through Amherst and Point, ( possibly it did) blew up in West Virginia threatening an entire community with monstrous flames, and billowing clouds of toxic pollution, the same pollution scientifically proven to be contributing to Climate Change.

Fortunately there was no loss of life, unlike the blow up in Quebec that killed 47 in a community just like Amherst. What gets my goat is that these trains are going over three concrete trestles in the center of town. From casual appearance, these trestles seem old and in very poor shape. There are cracks everywhere with seeping water. As these heavy, multi-engined monsters lumber through town, the entire place shakes---and that includes those lame trestles. Has there ever been a complaint about the Bomb Trains?

There has been a multitude of derailments of these large tanker trains. The frequent cause, extreme heat caused by global warming. http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-warp-railroad-tracks-sun-kinks-17470

To top it off, the oil being hauled is frack oil from the Bakken. It is widely known this light crude is highly volatile and explodes easily. If the cars tip and rupture, as they did in West Virginia, the toxic oil, heads for the river, if burning, making it look like the Cuyahoga River in Iowa.

What it comes down to is we Americans, we members of Portage County need to get real serious about our use of oil, particularly as we are now scraping the bottom of the barrel and going after the stuff in extreme places be it tar sands in Canada, ultra deep in the Gulf (remember Horizon) or in the short-lived frack wells.

To make it even more interesting we now are about to have a major pipeline going through the heart of Wisconsin--carrying frack oil and tar sands bitumen spiked with volatile natural gas condensates.
http://www.wisconsingazette.com/wisconsin/xxlbreakwisconsin-pipeline-dwarfs-keystone-and-affects-every-waterway-in-the-state.html?fb_action_ids=10206002156244117&fb_action_types=og.comments

If you have grand-kids you should be worried.


The sustainable revolution is really struggling as we power are way along trying to maintain business as usual. Seems there are consequences---unintended consequences.

Peak Oil and How it Never Went Away

There used to be a lot of discussion on Peak Oil. Even big shots were becoming concerned---and I guess for good cause in that conventional crude, that is the oil that is rated at 45, did peak in '05 or with a stretch in '08. At that time, just before the economic recession, oil shot to $147 per barrel. Then the economy took a bit of a dive.

Well, many said it was not oil but rather a corrupt, fraud ridden banking system and all the "instruments" they were pedaling as derivatives. Still, it was interesting that conventional crude oil peaked at the same time. If I recall, the world was producing some 86 million barrels a day and was rumored to be pumping full out. It is also well known that oil, or liquid fuels, drives our economy and without it, there would be some disruptions in the way we do business, maybe with volatility or maybe a "crash". It was also suspected that the world economy could not live with $100 oil.

So time went along. Oil did a big dip to about $30 and then finally settle out 5 years later at the magic $100 or so. We are talking WTI here not Brent which tended to run at $120 or so. This $100 range prevailed for quiet some time but recently fell below $50 and seems to be lingering.

What has proved to be interesting is that the economy never recovered. It is true, we were told it was going better but in reality the world has been a mess as can be seen most clearly in Europe where recovery has not happened. In truth, as the graph shows, in the USA the only industry that was doing well was the fossil fuel sector. The rest of the economy during this $100 oil days has really not recovered. This has been pointed out by many economist but generally the narrative has been controlled by the government optimist and big corporations. The attitude has been talk it up enough and eventually every body will spend and the consumer economy will be growing like cancer on a bad organ.

So why talk about peak oil again? Couple of things. It turns out the economy can not live with $100 oil and it never recovered. In fact, things have been deteriorating even tough rich (? relative) people like me, have really not noticed it--the church parking lot is plumb packed with big, new cars every Sunday. But the periphery, the less fortunate, have been suffering---Detroit, Camden NJ, on and on.

Then oil drops to sub $50 while some cheer for the cheap  $1.75 gasoline  and such, But in the process the oil industry starts shutting down well drilling, some expensive production and lots of exploration and development. Opp! The claim is there is too much oil but in reality the demand has gone down because of the previously-mentioned continued recession.

There is, of course, more of "liquid fuels"  being produced and it it is now up to 90 million barrels. ALL of the new production is in North America (US and Canada). all of it. The rest of the world is in decline (grapth). Here is the big deal, we are now shutting in our oil and some drillers are starting to go out of business. This means that US production will shortly begin to decline as will the tar sands of Canada. Once they go down, world wide production will also begin to decline.

Couple of big questions: If the total liquids (oil, condensate, ethanol, frack oil) production drops off to say 88 million barrels a day, will it be possible to ever get it back to the high of 90 million a day. While drillers are shutting down, the rest of the world's output is declining and there will be a bigger gap to over come. When one considers that the frack wells decline by at least 40% each year, things look  a little odd. Will there then be a shortage once production hits demand? Will oil then shoot to $150 a barrel? And if it does will that cause a deeper recession? And then another fierce drop in price? Tell me peak oil is not an issue! Will drillers give up for lack of profit? What about the geopolitical issues? What about the banking system that has never been fixed. What about the geology were the easy-to-get oil is all gone? We do live in interesting times.

Interestingly, the only dip in emission we have had in years, occurred in '08 right after the crash of the banking system and the economy---and $147 oil!.