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Monday, March 7, 2016

Missionary's Position, Temporarily Crippled Person Makes Statement on State of the World

I have been idle, in part because of sloth and in part because I had to buy a new knee. Today in a fit, not one induced by the Vicodin I have been taking, I wrote this diatribe in response to an article sent to me. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/11-chilling-predictions-for-what-the-world-will-look-like-in-10-years/articleshow/51284405.cms?intenttarget=no

 If so inclined, one could read it. I thought it good and more consistent with the truth than can be found n out MSM---even though I suspect an Amurikan wrote it. It is in the Times of India.

Here is my response.

Central to the writers point of view was that oil prices, and probably commodity prices, were going to stay low. This one issue seems to be a very destabilizing issue for the writer. While presently we are seeing this to be very true and very destabilizing, I don’t think the prices will remain low due to the fact that oil is a very finite resource. As this graph below shows conventional oil peaked 8 or so years ago and all of the new production has been US and Canadian unconventional “Oil” (much of it not really being oil at all but condensates, natural gas liquids, tar and ethanol)


At the present price, it has also peaked. As is well known, production in the US and Can. is falling off very rapidly right now, so it is just a matter of time before the price goes up. It is my thought, and others, the price will go back to where it is profitable again which probably just short of $100/br. This one thing will completely change the dynamic which is stated a number of times in the article. In other words, the suffering we are presently seeing in the oil states (Russia, KSA, Venez. Brazil, etc) will abate to some extent. Notably, in Russia, thus allowing them to maintain there vaulted position as they do have lots of oil---10 million barrels a day production and 7-8 million being exported.

Will they break up, or lose influence---not if the price goes up which it will as oil becomes scarce (next 2 years). 

EU will not stay in its present form---I agree. Stagnation is already there so that is a given. Many of the southern states will decline. Euroexceptionalism:  not sure what that is nor why it was said unless it was a hint at the mass migrations they will have to deal with and how corrosive that will become. The influx of migrants, which is just starting due to widespread overshoot in the area (Egypt is next---graph above ), will have catastrophic affects and be very disruptive. This process will have no solutions and may well take down much of the EU unity---already is.


Poland: That is a new one to me but might be some truth to it, but they lack  direct access to resources--like we have here. Everything has to be shipped in. This will be the plight of many countries, they simply do not have natural resources. Japan being the poster child of this situation.

Turkey: Many Arab states will free fall and that is a huge problem for Turkey because they are on the trail north, the one that will soon be blocked (already is). Increase oil prices could elevate some issues there.

China: now, there is a basket case. Being a totalitarian nation, they are capable of some very hasty changes and if it involves the death of a few million, they will not care one lick. Their growth is and will continue to slow down. They are so full of economic bubbles, corruptions, population anomalies, and resource issues that it is hard to know just were the hell that will end up but not well.

Japan build a navy? What! Where the hell will they get the money for that? The next statement in the piece says their production will move to other places. Most writers think Japan will actively consider going back to their past feudal state. They have nothing----but the USA.

The next part of the piece is the most confusing as it states that most of the new Growth” and “production” will move to a group of states, a group that looks more like a list of the world’s biggest losers. Many are close to being failed states, most are obscenely over-populated, have few, if any resources and governed by idiots. Wow, seem to be way off based on this one.



The USA: First off, we do not and I repeat do not, have a burgeoning energy supply. That is pure nonsense. What we have is also responsible for creating global climate change.  To top it off, our economy has not been growing since ‘08 and will not grow ever again because it simply can not---if it should, for some odd reason,  it simply means that much more of the natural world will be destroyed.

Will we (the USA) remain stable? Possibly but with a much lower standard of living due to resource depletion, world instabilities, global climate change, wealth inequities, but we do have our own resources, and we are not obscenely over populated---even though there will be increased pressure to absorb more migrants from the south---but, in case no one noticed, Obama has increased the security force down there, built a much bigger fence and not opened his arms ( a paltry 15K Syrians) 

  In the end, I believe they are leaving out too many issues to be very definitive in their opinions. There is no mention of global warming, which is become very much forefront. http://qz.com/605609/the-climate-change-refugee-crisis-is-only-just-beginning/ There is no mention of population dynamics which has been known for years. http://churchandstate.org.uk/2013/04/dennis-meadows-there-is-nothing-that-we-can-do/
Economics and the nature of capitalism is clearly a threat to our survival but only passing information based on the thought oil would stay low. There are a multitude of writers beginning to criticize capitalism. No mention of that here in this piece. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/09/books/review/naomi-klein-this-changes-everything-review.html?_r

While you have heard my rap before, here is a brief outline.

1. World economic growth will slow and eventually decline due to resource depletion, water, air, fuel and natural resources. Ultimately, these losses will lead to food scarcity and massive human migrations---and worse.

2. Species loss will become profound (already is).




3. Climate change will accentuate all of the above as will the 220,000 more people on the face of the earth each and every day.



4. Economic systems in place are all based on never-ending exponential growth which can not continue in a finite world. This alone may upset the entire globe before the other issues come to play. It is all based on debt at this point, debt that can not be paid back. At the moment we are seeing the affects of this with economic disruptions world-wide.

These events could drag out for years but even the piece you sent doesn’t paint much of a picture---really very consistent with my own.

There are some points of mitigation and adaptations for sure but we are not addressing them. Having energy prices stay low would be a very good thing because it will crash the world economies and that is what really needs to happen. Oddly enough, we would come out of that the best---because all we have to do is drop our standard of living to that of Europe---after going through a nasty depression.


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