The Bicycle----Revolution Watch

Right there on the front of our local paper is a big spread on the new bike path project. I will admit that it seems to be oriented toward recreation but still, the encouragement of bicycling over say, four wheeling with hopped internal combustion engines, is a good direction. Americans are developing very big fat asses and this has to be a step in the right direction.

Anything that gets away from burning more fuel has to be good. But is it a big enough statement. Does this plan set up a situation where more folks could commute to work? Or is it limited to a nice trail along the river?

I have to wonder too if this is not being done to make the city of Stevens Point "green" and thus a more likely destination for more home buyers who in turn make more congestion and in the end more consumption. What is the motivation here?

I suspect it is multifaceted. It is nice to have trails that are occupied by quiet participants getting exercise and it is also possible a few folks will commute using the trail. But if it encourages more people to move here, then the roads become more congested and those who do use the roads to bike are more in danger--and they have to breath more exhaust. It's like you can't win. You make something that adds to the quality of life and you get more people who in turn decrease the quality of life by their shear numbers.

In truth, the promoters of this probably are thinking it will bring growth, that is the key word, GROWTH. Maybe "green" growth but no matter how one looks at it it is still growth and there in lies the problem. Grow, grow, grow until everything is gone, used up by humans, the biggest locust ever known. Am I in a bad mood? Nah, I just like it the way it is, and I don't want to be surrounded by an endless sea of people. If I did, I'd more to LA or Chi Town.

Quotes of Interest---Missionary's Position

I love quotes, and they do not have to be from famous people but, in truth, many of the best ones come for the famous and the infamous. Capitalism has been under attack in recent years because of its habit of exploiting every resource on the face of earth---and just maybe, in the end,  being our down fall.  It appears to be a form of economics that just may have to go, so we now hear of Biophysical Economics and Stable State Economics. Here are a few comments on Capitalism from the famous.

Here is Al Capone."Capitalism is the legitimate racket of the ruling class."  

Then we have Milton Friedman of the Chicago School of Disaster Economics  (read The Shock Doctrine), "The problem of social organization is how to set up an arrangement under which greed will do the least harm, capitalism is that kind of a system." He is the love child of the conservatives along with Ayn Rand. He also is the economic cause of hundreds of thousands of deaths----but still loved.

John Maynard Keynes said, "Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone." But when it is not doing the greatest good, then what---ooops!

The odd part of their view is that, even though they might have won Pulitzers none of them, except Capone ever considered resources to be finite. They honestly thought the stuff was endless---never took a course in science, or math (exponential function important) . Wow! "Mother nature bats last, dude".

I love the language use of James Kuntzler. "The religious nuts and Dixieland ignoranti will demand the expulsion of all non-extremists and Karl Rove will be left at the Nascar track with Honey Boo Boo on his lap and a dwindling "base" of shrieking microcephalics awaiting the second coming of Adolf Hitler in a green satin Mountain Dew race-day jumpsuit." Beautiful if I don't say. A wonderful image. 

Meadows (author of Limits to Growth): "The problem that faces our societies is that we have developed industries and policies that were appropriate at a certain moment, but now start to reduce human welfare, like for example the oil and car industry. Their political and financial power is so great and they can prevent change. It is my expectation that they will succeed. This means that we are going to evolve through crisis, not through proactive change."

 "I am using oil because I don’t want dinosaurs to have died in vain." Smart ass individual of an unknown source

 “When you are surrounded by something so big that requires you to change everything about the way you think and see the world, then denial is the natural response. But the longer we wait, the bigger the response required.”  Paul Guilding

“We have become a Nazi monster in the eyes of the world-a nation of bullies and bastards who would rather kill than live peacefully. We are not just Whores for power and oil, but killer Whores with hate and fear in our hearts. We are human scum and that is how history will remember us.” (Hunter S. Thompson) To think that I sat in his favorite stool at the Woody Creek Bar in the Aspen Valley. I believe his ashes were sent into space or did his friends send them skyward along with a bottle of Wild Turkey using a bazooka.

 

 

Revolution Watch---Ethanol Production for Chainsaw

When the US of A started using corn to power SUVs with ethanol, it occurred to me that it might just be possible to make my own fuel for the chainsaw. I mean, is it possible to power my saw with fuel I make? Cars run on it. Sure, there has to be some modification to the motors by why not adjust the ethanol, say add cooking oil from sunflowers, and see if it was possible to have a sustainable chain saw.

Of course, it would be hard to build a chainsaw with ethanol, especially self-made fuel, but that is another discussion that I don't want to have because it gives me a headache.

So the first thing I did was secure some possible grains for fermenting, this included Indian corn which is none GMO, some yellow corn which is GMO and designed to make fuel, malted barley, malted rye and some good old white sugar to boost production. All of this was ground up with a hand-driven coffee grinder by Dave from New York. He particularly enjoyed doing it as it made him decidedly sustainable--imagine just human power. I grew the Indian corn, so at this point we are really down-home and  personally close-to-the-earth----so to speak. We still had not put on the banjo/fiddle music but did once inside and up close to a couple of nice beers.

I know some will note that the grain mix also might appear to have a similar ratio to what is called beer, and if one looks closely, it might also appear to be the ingredient for what is known as agua vitae, or eau de vie. But initially, I saw it as fuel and not "The Water of Life---at least for a while.

 The entire mix, some 15 Lbs, was put in a vat and heated to 140-150 degrees which by all accounts turns the starches to sugar. We did this by carefully heating it over the wood-burning cook stove, thus again being very sustainable. This sugar is a favorite snack of yeast which gobble it up so as to reproduce themselves at a prodigious rate. In the process, they have a waste product known as ethanol, our target chemical. Once they have eaten all the food they die off, just like any species that consumes all it resources. Oh, a few survive and can be revived with more sugar. It is like going through a classic population bottleneck. Some have asked if humans are smarter than yeast.

Once the fermentation is over, after about 5-7 days, then it is possible to either drink the beverage in the form of beer (which, by the way is real fun) or to distill the stuff and extract the ethanol for the chain saw. We used a simple device made of a stainless pot, a cooper tube, and a cooling bucket for condensation. Once the "product" is dripped out, it can be stored in a wooden barrel or in jars filled with charcoal. This makes it turn a nice brown color and when it burns in the saw it smells real nice.

Anyway, we discovered one can make this ethanol from almost anything that has corn sugar, or natural sugars, (even horse milk I read) in it, which is interesting because that means almost everything we eat from the supper market is potential fuel. I personally believe a turnip and a rutabaga can also be used but the smell might be a bit rough. It is my plan to try the first batch in the hit and miss engine because they are indestructible. I love being sustainable.

Ice Fishing In the Mid West

Oh ya, the ice was finally on, and it was late coming, but 6 inches is just fine for walking but not real hot for taking the VW. Dave and I trucked into the foot-access lake dragging my rig which consisted of a plastic sled, a couple of buckets for sitting and one for minnows. Oh, I forgot Dave took along a luxurious lawn chair for the ultimate comfort. Of course, we had my tip-ups, frosty ales and a couple of jigging poles.

Dave, and that is not me, did the pulling for the 3/4 of a mile as I feigned a foot pain, but it did hurt some due to age and he appeared  to enjoy pulling as an exercise. Zoey, New York Dave's smiling dog, went along for moral support and the opportunity to stare in space, or stare at things of unknown value---at least to me.

It was a glorious day, low clouds, almost fog, no wind and a comfortable 43 degrees. Like summer really, but seeing we had just had a rain in mid January, thanks to global warming, the majority of the lake had a nice covering of 3 inches of water and slush, Still there was the south end where the water had not accumulated and all we had was a annoying one inch of slush.

We grabbed a couple of later day holes left just for us, slapped up a couple of tip-ups with 2 sizes of minnows, dropped a Swedish Pimple to the bottom and started jigging for the big ones. Dave snapped open a couple of brewskies from the local beverage shop, the ones they do for fisherman with lots of alcohol, and we laid back telling anecdotes and other witticisms.

This might have been when Dave told me of a car buggy collision in Amish country. He said the horse was "totaled" meaning it went to the final stall. I thought that was cute and we tried to figure out how the insurance company dealt with that. Was it too far gone to fix? Could they take it to the junkyard for some salvage? Then too, how do you set the value, $350 for a pony, $525 for gilding of note, maybe $730 for a horse really loved by the 10 year old kid? What if it had been in a previous accident and was dented? Did they call a wrecker? Was it sent to France to be recycled?

Fishing sure brings out the conversation. Then there was the flag up. We dashed over with the dog bounding ahead not knowing what was in store. I lifted the tip-up and the line was moving out. Bingo, I set the hook and in minutes a fat bass bounded out of the hole with me all full of myself and Dave jealous of my prowess. For reasons unknown, I took a quick look at the fat fish and decided it was not big enough, only to look at the photo above and realize it was indeed a keeper.

Oh well, we settled back into our beers and recliners and left the fishing to the dog who now must have known there was more fish on the end of the line, a fish she might catch.  Nothing like going out on the ice, and that ain't no metaphor.

Walking in the Winter

I like to think that we have made a commitment to go for walks as a way of fighting off the temptation to go rotund, you know "tusker" like, elephantine, el gordo, bloato, what ever. In the summer, it is easier because of the warmth but also because the days are longer, oh, I guess it is day light.

In the winter, the warm old stove has a special draw and the winter wind has a way of making me cringe on first contact. I am told, and I now believe,  the key to winter walks is "to embrace" the winter as if is a wondrous time, a time to become one with the season. It is the only way.

We slap on our snowshoes, or some times just walking crampons, and hit the trails. I must say, we are never disappointed even though those first few steps can be discouraging. It is like "Why? Why must we do this? I remember the large bowl of ice cream of last night, and my aging mind reminds me that cream tends to attach itself to my not so glorious mid section. The six pack of youth is gone---I know, now it is another six pack.

Then, no sooner do we start and there is a lone eagle perusing the landscape, maybe a frosty rabbit and we are off down the trail among the maples, white pines and oaks, feeling warm and having our faces stung by the cold breeze.

Just 2 days ago, we took a friend, Dave for New York, down the rail berm all sauntering, marveling and blabbering of frigid winter days we spent together in the back country in the up state of New York some 43 years ago. Here like there, the low ground was filled with tracks of deer and turkeys. Half way up the one mile stretch we noticed a particularly well constructed, rather aesthetic bird house plopped in a fallen tree right tight up against the trail. It was a gift, I suspect, from a fellow traveler who in their summertime walks maybe wanted to see more birds. The trail is also a gift in our mind, so the house is simply an act of passing it on. Great idea. Maybe this winter we should make a few more bird houses.

The Dairy Industry---Revolution Watch

One would think that in Wisconsin the Dairy industry would never take a hit. Seems times are changing and the Golden Guernsey facility is closing after some 83 years of operation. It was owned by some investment firm from the west coast--why someone from another state has to own it is beyond me, but that is the way much is now----lucky it is not China.

The reason stated were that the sale price of milk is very low and their operating cost are too high. The later part of this seems to point to labor wages. Same old game, blame labor, that would be labor that wants to make a living wage. I am sure they wanted labor to drop wages and they baulked. Why not charge a high price for milk?

One also has to wonder if this is not another investment group that operates like Romney's Bain Capitol, buys out business then salvage sells them for a profit while putting 100 folks out of work. I think they call it venture capitalism, or is it vulture capitalism. About the same.Then maybe they will declare bankruptcy, reform, restructure and force the folks holding the loan to take a bath--probably the bath will be passed on to the public somehow.

It is a bottling plant and distributor that apparently largely supplies schools and institutions. The implications were that the customers all could find milk elsewhere. One just has to hope it is in Wisconsin in that we, as a state, are 47th in the nation in producing jobs. Another 100 down the drain, and these are jobs in the food business, not manufacturing of worthless plastic. This is a real commodity.

The fact that the newspaper cost me $1.75 also has to catch a person's eye. There is another industry in trouble, Maybe a sign of the digital times. Interesting revolution.

Predictions for 2013---Missionary's Position

Like every jackass around, I figured I should have a chance to make a prediction for this coming year. In my case, it will be about the status of the Sustainable Revolution that we are going through. This is simply a revolution that has to happen because we all live in a world of finite resources and in that world, we can not have never-ending exponential growth. The Sustainable Revolution will be one in which the world of economic growth (GDP) will end and we will have to be content with that change.

The revolution, in my mind, will mean that we will all have to drop our standard of living to a point where it can be sustained for many years. Presently, we are over-using almost all of our resources, in that most of them can not be replaced at any time in human's future. Once they are gone, we will be forced to live a different life.

While the revolution got its start in 2008 or so, it is still moving forward in what I see as a fairly reasonable way, in that is going slowly. I have made note of the changes on this site in the last 3 years. So here is where I think it will go in the following year. Keep in mind my predictions are about the USA for the most part because we care little about the rest of the world----even though much of it might be in a state of chaos.Of course, I will mention the rest of the world in that in reality, we are affected by it.


World Population: Next year we will have another 75 million people added to the world just like in 2012 and many of the years before that. Those folks will continue to be confronted by declining grain land per person and also a declining grain yield per person. There simply will be more hungry people and the food will be more expensive. Thus, there will be more stress in the areas that have growing food shortages. Recall Tunisia and the food riots setting off the disruptions in the North Africa and Middle East. There will be more of that----forever. The USA has lots of food and we will remain fat and sassy. No attempt will be made to even discuss over population issues. By the way, the US will gain about another 3 million citizens---all the world needs is more US Citizens consuming like wild men!

Depletion of water supplies and the increase of global warming will only add to the issue of producing more food for more people. In the USA, land of plenty, we will do just fine wasting tons and burning 40% of our corn for fuel.

Global Warming: The world will continue to warm and there will be more extreme events much like occurred  on the east coast this fall. The weather changes will be noted with many scientist screaming their heads off but absolutely nothing will be actively done to cut emissions (any effort would affect the economy). However, there may be some decrease in CO2 if the entire world were to slip into a greater recession and fuel demand goes down. It is important to keep in mind this will only slow the increase not turn it around. Millions may die from flooding and drought in other countries.  The weather will be more exciting here in America but we will party on assuming technology will solve all things. 

Economic Conditions: This is where the action is because the only thing that really matters is our wealth. While it is true neither one of the above two factors will likely affect our wealth this year, in the long run they will be very big deals---life changing. For now, they will mean nothing as we don't care. However, what goes on in the world of money is a big deal. The excessive debt problem will continue in Europe and I suspect in 2013 at least 2 of the PIGS will default on their debt. This will have repercussions for our economy as some of our too-big-to-fail banks are exposed to that debt. The USA has the ability to print more money, so we will have a continued process of QE FOREVER and will hide the problem for the next generation to solve. Hyper inflation might be just around the corner, however, if the money flow gets out of hand.

The UK has huge problems as well as France. The banking system in England has even fewer rules than our own so I see it really struggling to cover the sins of re-hypothecation (60% of their GDP is in money handling!). England could really suffer and austerity, which is now really hitting them, will become almost unmanageable. All of the financial problems of the world are tied into our (USA) big banks because of their crazy loaning policies of the past and the peddling of fraudulent investment instruments (CDSs, CDOs, derivatives and more). The banks are for all purposes insolvent and if they had to mark to market their assets, they would not survive----but we can print money and we will not prosecute the criminals because if we did the entire thing would collapse.

What it comes down to is that 2013 will be a financial struggle to stay afloat. We too will be subjected to more austerity and a drop in the standard of living. This has been going on since 2008 (or Ross Perot said 1973, and the figures confirm that) and will continue in 2013. The USA could see major fiscal, currency, financial issues in 2013 and what happens in the rest of the world WILL interest us.

Energy: This issue has become kind of a sleeper because our media/military/industrial complex has managed to convince Americans that we are awash in energy. This is sad because it is setting up a situation of false optimism. Here is the deal, the US imports almost 9 million barrels of oil a day out of a total of 18.5 we use, like half. Interestingly, the amount of oil available on the export market has been in decline for some six years and to top it off, the tight oil of the Bakken play is not going to produce what folks think. To date, it has only increased our over all net production by 700K barrels a day and will level out in a couple of years at maybe 2 million barrels. In the mean time all of our other sources are declining. There will be shortages maybe starting in 2013. Remember net available exports are declining!

The same pattern is true of natural gas. We are being duped to some degree. So, for 2013 we will see an increase in the price of natural gas and a continued high price for gasoline---both hurting the economy and lowering our standard of living. Oh, high fuel prices means high food prices.

In other words we will, if lucky, continue on the road down the Sustainable Revolution---living a simpler life and a lower standard. At what point the American public baulks is yet to be seen. It will bite harder in 2013. I rather like the comment someone made when asked about what he thought this century would be like compared to the 20th century. he said, "Just like the last century----but in reverse." That could be OK.