Predictions for 2013---Missionary's Position

Like every jackass around, I figured I should have a chance to make a prediction for this coming year. In my case, it will be about the status of the Sustainable Revolution that we are going through. This is simply a revolution that has to happen because we all live in a world of finite resources and in that world, we can not have never-ending exponential growth. The Sustainable Revolution will be one in which the world of economic growth (GDP) will end and we will have to be content with that change.

The revolution, in my mind, will mean that we will all have to drop our standard of living to a point where it can be sustained for many years. Presently, we are over-using almost all of our resources, in that most of them can not be replaced at any time in human's future. Once they are gone, we will be forced to live a different life.

While the revolution got its start in 2008 or so, it is still moving forward in what I see as a fairly reasonable way, in that is going slowly. I have made note of the changes on this site in the last 3 years. So here is where I think it will go in the following year. Keep in mind my predictions are about the USA for the most part because we care little about the rest of the world----even though much of it might be in a state of chaos.Of course, I will mention the rest of the world in that in reality, we are affected by it.


World Population: Next year we will have another 75 million people added to the world just like in 2012 and many of the years before that. Those folks will continue to be confronted by declining grain land per person and also a declining grain yield per person. There simply will be more hungry people and the food will be more expensive. Thus, there will be more stress in the areas that have growing food shortages. Recall Tunisia and the food riots setting off the disruptions in the North Africa and Middle East. There will be more of that----forever. The USA has lots of food and we will remain fat and sassy. No attempt will be made to even discuss over population issues. By the way, the US will gain about another 3 million citizens---all the world needs is more US Citizens consuming like wild men!

Depletion of water supplies and the increase of global warming will only add to the issue of producing more food for more people. In the USA, land of plenty, we will do just fine wasting tons and burning 40% of our corn for fuel.

Global Warming: The world will continue to warm and there will be more extreme events much like occurred  on the east coast this fall. The weather changes will be noted with many scientist screaming their heads off but absolutely nothing will be actively done to cut emissions (any effort would affect the economy). However, there may be some decrease in CO2 if the entire world were to slip into a greater recession and fuel demand goes down. It is important to keep in mind this will only slow the increase not turn it around. Millions may die from flooding and drought in other countries.  The weather will be more exciting here in America but we will party on assuming technology will solve all things. 

Economic Conditions: This is where the action is because the only thing that really matters is our wealth. While it is true neither one of the above two factors will likely affect our wealth this year, in the long run they will be very big deals---life changing. For now, they will mean nothing as we don't care. However, what goes on in the world of money is a big deal. The excessive debt problem will continue in Europe and I suspect in 2013 at least 2 of the PIGS will default on their debt. This will have repercussions for our economy as some of our too-big-to-fail banks are exposed to that debt. The USA has the ability to print more money, so we will have a continued process of QE FOREVER and will hide the problem for the next generation to solve. Hyper inflation might be just around the corner, however, if the money flow gets out of hand.

The UK has huge problems as well as France. The banking system in England has even fewer rules than our own so I see it really struggling to cover the sins of re-hypothecation (60% of their GDP is in money handling!). England could really suffer and austerity, which is now really hitting them, will become almost unmanageable. All of the financial problems of the world are tied into our (USA) big banks because of their crazy loaning policies of the past and the peddling of fraudulent investment instruments (CDSs, CDOs, derivatives and more). The banks are for all purposes insolvent and if they had to mark to market their assets, they would not survive----but we can print money and we will not prosecute the criminals because if we did the entire thing would collapse.

What it comes down to is that 2013 will be a financial struggle to stay afloat. We too will be subjected to more austerity and a drop in the standard of living. This has been going on since 2008 (or Ross Perot said 1973, and the figures confirm that) and will continue in 2013. The USA could see major fiscal, currency, financial issues in 2013 and what happens in the rest of the world WILL interest us.

Energy: This issue has become kind of a sleeper because our media/military/industrial complex has managed to convince Americans that we are awash in energy. This is sad because it is setting up a situation of false optimism. Here is the deal, the US imports almost 9 million barrels of oil a day out of a total of 18.5 we use, like half. Interestingly, the amount of oil available on the export market has been in decline for some six years and to top it off, the tight oil of the Bakken play is not going to produce what folks think. To date, it has only increased our over all net production by 700K barrels a day and will level out in a couple of years at maybe 2 million barrels. In the mean time all of our other sources are declining. There will be shortages maybe starting in 2013. Remember net available exports are declining!

The same pattern is true of natural gas. We are being duped to some degree. So, for 2013 we will see an increase in the price of natural gas and a continued high price for gasoline---both hurting the economy and lowering our standard of living. Oh, high fuel prices means high food prices.

In other words we will, if lucky, continue on the road down the Sustainable Revolution---living a simpler life and a lower standard. At what point the American public baulks is yet to be seen. It will bite harder in 2013. I rather like the comment someone made when asked about what he thought this century would be like compared to the 20th century. he said, "Just like the last century----but in reverse." That could be OK.