Missionary Position----Mainstream Projections

I look at a lot of graphs because they frequently tell more of a story than thousands of words. Maybe it is because it is easier. After all, looking at a picture in a book is easier than actually reading. Probably why some politicians only read books with pictures---they don't read because they don't want facts to interfere with their thinking and policy making..

What we have here is a graph showing oil production in Alaska, that would be the same stuff that comes down the pipeline. While this only shows the last few years, it should be noted that production started out, or peaked at around 2 million barrels a day back in the 70s. I has been declining ever sense going right down the Hubbard curve.

But every year individuals, companies, make predictions on what the future flows will be. As can be seen every single year they have been mysteriously off because being right would have sad implications. However, time is the teller of truth. The last projection was done in the fall of "11 it is now the fall of '12 and the word is production may now be below 500K per day.

This does not surprise many analyst because they know the game---but it does fool the citizens and of course, the politicians---No, actually they do not want to know. Companies are trying to protect their investments and stock prices so inflating the reserves is good business. The very, very sad part of this is, this policy is going on all over the world and we are all being fooled. Reality just might be a better pill.