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Monday, February 17, 2014

Revolution Watch----Peak Oil Revisited

This peak oil thing just keeps coming around, goes away for awhile due to narrative control by the cornucopians but still keeps coming around. I understand why folks don't want to hear about it, but it seems to me that in order to comfortably slide into a new paradigm of less abundance, it might be worthwhile having a clue.

So what I like are graphs, ones that have been put together by known, well-informed academic types who have there eyes and ears to something outside the usual banter of glassy-eyed politicians and slope-headed under-evolved, reptilian-brained Jesus freaks.

The first graph here is of USA production of oil. One can see there has been an increase of 2.5 million barrels a day in the last few years ('09 - '13). Prior to that, our production had been declining right down the Hubbard curve. All of the new oil is from the fracking plays in N. Dakota and Texas. Oh, we use 18 million barrels a day.

 The next graph is for total world production and again one can see there has been an increase during this same time frame. From '05 to '09 it had been flat.


 The next graph is world production without the USA included. Interestingly, this graph shows a continued flat production (on average) What this means is that world production has made almost no gains since '05. It is broadly known that US production will again turn down in a couple of years and during that time world production will stay flat or decline, again down the Hubbard curve. This will again leave us in the position where the world will see total declining liquid fuels.

 As a side note, it is already known the available net exports have been in decline for 5-6 years and a further decline in over all production will really accentuate the total available net exports. None of this is good.

This graph goes along with the most recently announced bit of information that Shell is pulling out of the off-shore oil play in Alaska and out of the shale play in the frack areas of the U S because as they stated, those plays are "mature", meaning there is no money to be made and will not last long.


The graph above is interesting because it shows what is happening with investments of big oil players. They are investing huge amounts of capitol and not getting any return. In other words, oil is getting very hard to find. To me this information is chilling and needs to be absorbed by everyone. The message is clear. We need to make some changes while we can.


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